Iraq Withdrawal Decision of President Obama

In a Friday morning video conference, Obama and Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki agreed to a complete U.S. military departure that will fulfill a promise important to Obama’s reelection effort. The decision drew sharp criticism from his Republican rivals, as well as expressions of relieved support from those who believe it is time for the United States to conclude a war Obama once called “dumb.”

President Obama will withdraw all U.S. forces from Iraq by the end of the year, ending a long war that deeply divided the country over its origins and the American lives it consumed. The decision comes after months of efforts to reach an agreement with Iraq over a continuing U.S. military presence after 2011.

U.S. President Barack Obama announces the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq in the briefing room of the White House in Washington.

 

 

Politics in Washington and Baghdad drove the discussion over a potential troop extension, rather than considerations of required capabilities to preserve U.S. interests and a secure and stable Iraq. U.S. military commanders in Iraq had initially recommended a continued troop presence of more than 20,000; however, this number was whittled down by Washington on political grounds and the White House capped the acceptable number of U.S. troops at 3,000-5,000, a force size too small to accomplish the required missions.

Meanwhile, in Baghdad, Iraqi politicians were unwilling to publicly champion a continued U.S. presence, even though most groups privately favored an extension of U.S. forces for training. Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki wanted the support of Iraq’s other political groups before moving on an agreement, whereas other groups, like the Sadrist Trend, also sought to spoil an agreement.

After months of delay, Iraq’s various political factions agreed in early August to start formal negotiations on a troop presence, but the negotiations stalled over the question of immunities. U.S. negotiators maintained that the only way to secure immunities for U.S. troops was to have an agreement approved by Iraq’s parliament. Iraqis countered first that they didn’t need parliamentary approval but rather a memorandum of understanding; but in recent weeks, Iraqis said that American forces would have no immunities at all. The talks ceased.

The withdrawal of U.S. forces will make it harder to pursue its interests in Iraq and the region. U.S. forces played important roles not just in training the Iraqi forces and bolstering their professionalism, but in supporting diplomatic efforts, mediating tensions along the Arab-Kurd fault line, and countering Iranian influence. Despite the President’s call for an Iraq that is sovereign, stable, and representative, 2012 will likely see: the growing consolidation of power in the hands of the Prime Minister and an increasingly authoritarian government; a higher probability of Arab-Kurdish tensions that could spark an armed conflict; a more vulnerable and inactive diplomatic presence that is open to attacks from Iranian-backed Shi’a militants; and most importantly an Iraq that is less sovereign and less-friendly to the United States on account of growing Iranian influence.